[Column] Ensure the umbrella be unfurled
Jeong Jae-hong
The author is the international, diplomatic and security news editor of the JoongAng Ilbo.
As if to prove the escalation of its nuclear and missile provocations, North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) last week from a super-sized multiple rocket launcher to the East Sea. The recalcitrant state fired the two missiles — supposedly targeting Cheongju Air Base and Kunsan Air Base, a U.S. Air Force base — in response to a joint aerial drill the South and the U.S. conducted by mobilizing F-35 stealth fighter jets and B-1B strategic bombers the previous day. The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), the North’s mouthpiece, accentuated the role of the multiple rocket launchers as “a means of tactical nuclear attacks.” KCNA warned, “The rocket launch system is so formidable that we have allocated one launcher with four tubes to each airfield of our enemy.”
Security experts believe that North Korea has not yet acquired the technology to make warheads for tactical weapons small and light enough to load them onto SRBMs. But it is just a matter of time. In a briefing to the National Assembly’s Intelligence Committee on Wednesday, the Ministry of National Defense said North Korea is capable of firing ICBMs and will likely conduct a seventh nuclear test later this year to miniaturize and lighten its warheads.
In the 2022 Defense White Paper released on Feb. 16, the defense ministry assessed that North Korea acquired more than 70 kilograms (154 pounds) of plutonium and a considerable amount of highly-enriched uranium (HEU). The North’s plutonium increased by 20 kilograms from 2020. The RAND Corporation and the Asan Institute for Policy Studies forecast that North Korea will have 200 nuclear weapons, scores of ICBMs, and hundreds of nuclear-tipped missiles by 2027.
If North Korea has more than 200 nuclear weapons, denuclearization talks are just a pipe dream. If so, Pyongyang would start nuclear reduction talks with Washington to lift international sanctions. In a December report, the Heritage Foundation assessed that North Korea is on a path to develop its nuclear war-fighting capability in real battles far beyond the level of deterrence.
The advancement of the North’s nuclear capability deepens the South’s anxiety. A recent survey on 1,000 adults shows 76.6 percent of South Koreans supported their own nuclear armaments. When asked if the U.S. would exercise its extended deterrence in times of crisis on the Korean Peninsula, 51.3 percent said the U.S. would, while 48.7 percent said it wouldn’t. The division of public opinion reflect a growing sense of anxiousness among South Koreans over whether Uncle Sam would really come to their rescue at the last minute.
Without U.S. approval, however, South Korea can hardly develop nuclear weapons on its own due to the high prices it must pay in return for the push for its own nukes.
South Korea and the U.S. are determined to augment their ability to deal with North Korean nuclear threats by reinforcing U.S. extended deterrence. Citing its “ironclad commitment” to South Korea’s defense and its “solid nuclear umbrella,” the U.S. plans to raise the effectiveness of the deterrence through an Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group (Edscg) meeting between Seoul and Washington to be held later this year. If the extended deterrence really can dispel the public anxiety by effectively curbing the North’s nuclear and missile capabilities, that’s not a bad idea. Japan, a country under the same nuclear threat from North Korea, firmly trusts the U.S. extended deterrence.
South Korea and the U.S. celebrate the 70th anniversary of their alliance in October this year. The alliance, praised as one of the most successful alliances around the globe, has been a pivot to Korea’s security and prosperity. In the 70th year of the alliance, President Yoon Suk Yeol will meet U.S. President Joe Biden on several occasions. Bloomberg said Yoon’s state visit to the U.S. slated for April is being discussed between the two countries. Certainly, the top agenda of the summit will be how to cope with the North Korean nuclear provocations.
In the coming summit, Yoon must convince Biden of his own ideas about raising the level of the extended deterrence. At the same time, Yoon must revise the 1974 Korea-U.S. Nuclear Energy Agreement, which banned South Korea from reprocessing spent fuel or enriching uranium beyond 20 percent concentration without prior approval from the U.S.
South Korea is not the war-devastated country 70 years ago anymore. It must behave as a responsible stakeholder in international affairs as the 10th largest economy and a leading science and technology power. The GPS, or the “global pivot state,” President Yoon pledged to create can be realized only when the country moves in solidarity with its partners upholding the same values of liberal democracy and market capitalism in East Asia and other global stages. For South Korea to do its fair share, Yoon must ensure the ally unfurl its nuclear umbrella before it is too late.